The market bounced yesterday  after the very negative Monday due to the sharp  drop in oil - squabble between Saudi Arabia and Russia - on top of the fear of increasing spread of Coronavirus 

Today we had another larger than normal down day; the high volatility measure how high the ups/downs will be on given market days  and right now suggest up or down days of 3-6% ; to keep this level of high swings suggest that having large up days can be just as likely as large down days and  it’s also less likely that this  volatility stays this high much longer.

Facilitating calm and perspective during times like this are when we are most busy and most valuable to our clients!  Please take advantage of us !

Please expect more volatility – mostly computer based /”machine trading” and not individuals or wealth mangers – until 2 or more of the following occurs, which should be sooner than later.

•  An agreement with the Saudis /Russia on price of oil/stability in energy sector
•  A  flat or decreasing trend in US cases of 2019-nCov
• Fiscal Government Policy /Economic Stimulus support to combat the disruption of our economy
• Sustainability in the leisure industries – Cruises and Airlines
• Sustainability in oil related/production companies
• Less negative economic data from China/Industries /Companies than the market is expecting , as reflected  in declined stock values.

Although  US banks , economy and consumer are strong to good , no one knows how widespread the virus will grow.   Clearly, the Global economy has slowed due to virus and corporate earnings will be  negatively  impacted.    The question is whether the rapid  outsized market decline will be confirmed by pending  economic and corporate earnings data and how quickly and wide the virus spreads in the US?

We don’t know what we don’t know, BUT THE GOOD NEWS : 

First :   Most portfolios are down substantially less than market indices ;   “ I know, who cares , I feel I lost a bunch of money!”  However, the importance in your values coming down less than the market is that we can take an offensive/buying tactic which enables greater gains when, not if, the market recovers.   We are taking action to reduce your exposure as appropriate , based on your Personal Investment Policy including your Personal Investment Model Allocation Selection as well as your custom financial plan.  Reducing risk means selling select sectors of stocks and  bonds and reallocating to cash, increasing fixed income or equites that may act inversely or cushion the decline in your account values.  We are just simply trying to reduce the turbulence like a pilot , until clean air is available to fly in again.   Make Sense?

Your Financial  Plan includes your annual consumption rate as a percentage of your total invested assets you have with Maxele .   In most of the cases, clients have 15-25 times + (meaning 15-25years+ ) in their funds of what they withdrawal per year.   Knowledge of this ratio allows you to know that a 10 -15% decline in your total portfolio  value only reduces your multiple typically by 1-3 years in most cases; in other words, you have 12-22 times what your draw or your funds will last 12-22 more years without no additional gains or loss , at this snap shot in time.  We do our best to review your ratio so you can keep calm at times like we are in now .  Every case is custom so if you have questions, please let us know.

Second, this cycle we are in will not last forever; China had bottoming in its stock market and increase in cases in about 45-50 days post trend of the virus spread.   This is very positive for us and the world! 

Third, there will be exceptional buying opportunities in stocks which can lead to higher values in portfolios than prior to the advent of this decline.

We remain Good Stewards of your money and this scary time will pass:  Do you recall SARS, SWINE FLU, EBOLA and what the market declines were?   Exactly!  That’s not to say this will be the same but the US has the best medical minds working on containment , prevention and eventually a vaccine .  

As always, if you have unusual concerns regarding the market volatility or would like to review your current Investment Allocation Election, please let us know . 

March 11,2020